Global Commercial Aviation Accident Trends (2015–2025) and Extreme Weather Impacts

Introduction

Commercial aviation safety has steadily improved over past decades, making air travel one of the safest modes of transportation. This report examines whether commercial airplane accidents have increased globally over the past decade (2015–2025) and investigates factors behind any changes, with a particular focus on extreme weather events. We analyze accident trends from 2015 to 2025 using data from organizations like the International Air Transport Association (IATA), and explore how extreme weather patterns – such as turbulence, storms, and heatwaves – may be influencing aviation incidents. We also consider how climate change could be impacting aviation safety (e.g. through increased turbulence or more frequent severe storms) and include expert insights from aviation authorities, meteorologists, and safety analysts.

Accident Trends (2015–2025)

Global data show that the number of commercial aviation accidents has generally declined over the last ten years, continuing a long-term improvement in safety. Figure 1 below illustrates the trend in total accidents per year from 2015 through 2024, indicating a downward trajectory with some yearly fluctuations. 2023, in particular, was recorded as one of the safest years on record for aviation, with an unprecedented low number of accidents. In 2024, however, accident figures rose slightly above 2023's low, though still remained below the longer-term average.

Figure 1: Global commercial aviation accidents per year (2015–2024). The overall trend has been downward, aside from year-to-year variability. A significant drop occurred in 2020–2021 during the pandemic (when global flight activity was reduced), followed by a modest uptick as air travel resumed.

Even accounting for the air traffic reduction in 2020–2021, safety performance has improved over time. IATA reports that the accident rate (accidents per flight) has fallen markedly: the five-year average accident rate declined from about 1 per 456,000 flights a decade ago to 1 per 810,000 flights recently. In fact, the industry's 5-year rolling average accident rate per million sectors improved from 2.20 (during 2011–2015) to 1.25 in 2020–2024. The long-term fatality risk has similarly decreased, with an average of ~5 fatal accidents per year globally (about 144 fatalities annually) over the past five years – an extraordinarily low risk level given the volume of flights. Table 1 summarizes the trend in accidents and fatalities:

Table 1: Global commercial aviation accident statistics, 2015–2024. (Data compiled from IATA reports. Fatalities include passengers and crew; 2024 figures reflect a rise from the unusually low 2023 values.)

Key observation: The overall number of accidents did not show a sustained increase over 2015–2025; in fact, it generally decreased. The year 2023 had the fewest accidents (only one fatal crash worldwide), highlighting the safety gains. The slight increase in 2024 (from 30 accidents in 2023 up to roughly mid-40s in 2024) is a return toward the longer-term average and was noted by IATA as a reversal of the extreme low seen in 2023. Even so, 2024 remained safer than most years in the past decade on a per-flight basis. IATA's Director General Willie Walsh emphasized that "even with recent high-profile aviation accidents, it is important to remember that accidents are extremely rare," and he noted that the long-term safety trend is one of continuous improvement.

Possible Reasons for Trends: The steady improvement in safety has been attributed to better technology, rigorous regulations, and safety management practices across the industry. However, experts have examined the slight uptick in 2024's accidents and pointed to a multifaceted set of factors. According to a recent analysis, the 2024 increase could be attributed to a combination of human error, environmental factors, technical issues, and geopolitical complexities:

• Human (Pilot) Error – remains the leading cause of aviation accidents, implicated in an estimated 70–80% of crashes. Issues like pilot fatigue, misjudgments, and over-reliance on automation continue to be critical safety concerns. (For example, automation design problems contributed to the Boeing 737 MAX accidents, and fatigue affects about half of long-haul pilots, potentially impairing decision-making.)

• Mechanical/Technical Factors – including manufacturing or design flaws, account for roughly 8% of accidents. High-profile cases like structural cracks grounding some 737s in 2024 underscore how engineering issues can impact safety. Regulators (e.g. the FAA) have faced scrutiny for certification lapses in cases like the 737 MAX and are working to improve oversight.

• Extreme Weather – adverse weather conditions contribute to approximately 10% of aviation accidents. This category includes hazards like thunderstorms, icing, wind shear, and severe turbulence. There is growing concern that climate change is making weather more unpredictable, with more frequent turbulence and storms posing new challenges. We will explore this factor in depth in the next sections.

• Air Traffic and Infrastructure – The rapid growth of air travel (flights worldwide are projected to exceed 40 million annually by 2030, ~25% up from 2020) means busier skies and congested airports. Increased traffic can elevate collision or incident risks in crowded airspace. In 2024 the U.S. saw 1,250 near-miss incidents, a 20% rise from the prior year, highlighting how volume can stress the aviation system.

• Geopolitical and Security Risks – Conflicts and restricted airspaces have forced airlines to reroute into narrower corridors, potentially increasing risk. As of 2024, over 20% of international flights required rerouting to avoid conflict zones. There were incidents like an Azerbaijani cargo plane shot down in Somalia and a passenger jet nearly entering restricted airspace. While these are security events (often excluded from official accident stats), they underscore an emerging safety concern outside of technical and weather factors.

In summary, the past decade has seen a decline in accidents overall, thanks to continuous safety improvements. 2023 was a standout safe year. The slight rise in accidents in 2024 serves as a reminder that risk factors are dynamic – increasing traffic, human limitations, technical issues, and environmental stresses all require vigilance. Next, we focus on one category of particular interest: how extreme weather and climate-related factors are affecting aviation safety.

Extreme Weather Patterns and Aviation Incidents

Extreme weather events – such as intense turbulence, severe storms, and heat extremes – have a direct impact on flight safety and operations. While weather has always been a consideration in aviation, there is evidence that changing climate patterns are exacerbating certain weather hazards. This section examines the relationship between these weather phenomena and aviation incidents.

Turbulence and Jet Stream Changes

Atmospheric turbulence is a leading cause of in-flight injuries and a growing concern for aviation safety. Critically, turbulence can occur without visible cues (clear-air turbulence) and thus sometimes catches crews and passengers off guard. Recent studies provide compelling evidence that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of turbulence at cruising altitudes. For example, research led by atmospheric scientist Prof. Paul Williams found that severe clear-air turbulence has increased by as much as 55% since 1979 on major flight routes, correlating with the warming atmosphere. Another study noted a 41% increase in severe turbulence over the U.S. between 1979 and 2020. The mechanism behind this is linked to a warming climate: higher temperatures lead to stronger wind shear in the jet stream, which in turn generates more turbulence in the high-altitude flight lanes.

Meteorologists and aviation experts warn that this trend will continue as the planet warms. Williams cautions that "for every ten minutes you've spent in severe turbulence in the past, it could be 20 or 30 minutes in the future" due to climate change. In other words, passengers and crew may experience longer and more frequent bouts of bumpy air in coming decades. Another scientist, Dr. Todd Lane of the University of Melbourne, explains that intensifying jet stream winds are making certain regions more turbulent: "Those jet streams at aircraft flight levels are projected to intensify, which means those regions will become more turbulent."

Case in point: In May 2024, a Singapore Airlines flight encountered extreme clear-air turbulence over the Indian Ocean, dropping nearly 180 feet in one second. Dozens of people were injured and one passenger tragically died as a result. This rare fatal turbulence incident underscored the potential danger of severe turbulence. It also sparked international discussion, as it coincided with new findings about climate-driven turbulence increases. Aviation authorities like the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) have taken note; EASA has warned that turbulence is expected to increase as weather patterns change with the climate. In the aftermath of the 2024 incident, safety experts stressed the importance of improved turbulence forecasting and real-time detection to mitigate such events.

Fortunately, turbulence-induced crashes of large airliners are exceedingly rare – modern aircraft are engineered to withstand even severe turbulence. The main safety impacts are injuries to unbuckled passengers/crew and aircraft wear-and-tear. On the latter point, more frequent encounters with turbulence could have economic and safety side-effects: every extra minute in turbulence adds stress to airframes and can necessitate additional maintenance. By one estimate, turbulence already costs airlines $150–500 million annually in operational and maintenance costs, a number expected to rise if turbulence becomes more common. To address this, airlines and tech firms are developing advanced turbulence tracking systems. For example, a consortium of carriers (including EasyJet and Qatar Airways) is trialing a real-time turbulence mapping system integrated into cockpit displays to help pilots avoid patches of clear-air turbulence.

In summary, turbulence is a growing weather-related risk. Climate change's influence on the jet stream is making flights bumpier on average, even though it's unlikely to cause planes to "fall out of the sky". The industry is responding with better detection and procedures, but passengers may need to get used to fastening seatbelts more often as a precaution.

Storms, Thunderstorms and Wind Hazards

Severe storms – including thunderstorms, intense rain, and wind events – have long been hazards to aviation, particularly during takeoff and landing phases. Climate change is projected to worsen many of these weather events. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which can fuel more powerful storms. Meteorological agencies have noted an uptick in extreme precipitation events and convective storms in many regions, raising concerns for aviation. Thunderstorms can produce violent updrafts/downdrafts, wind shear, hail, and lightning, all of which pose dangers to aircraft. For example, wind shear (sudden changes in wind speed/direction) at low altitudes has caused past accidents during approach or departure. Modern airports do employ wind shear alert systems and onboard radars help pilots avoid thunderstorm cells. Most thunderstorm-related turbulence can be avoided with weather radar and routing adjustments. Nonetheless, an overall increase in storm frequency or intensity means pilots have to navigate around dangerous weather more often, potentially leading to more delays, diversions, or weather-related incidents.

Runway excursions and landings in bad weather are a recurring incident category. Heavy rain, poor visibility, strong crosswinds, or slick runways can contribute to landing overruns or veer-offs. For instance, in December 2024 a Norwegian Boeing 737-800 overshot the runway in Molde, Norway during severe storm conditions, coming to rest just 15 meters from the sea. Fortunately there were no fatalities, but the incident highlighted how extreme weather (in this case, fierce winds and rain) can push an aircraft to the edge of the safety margin. As weather unpredictability grows, experts urge investment in more advanced forecasting and pilot training for such extremes.

Lightning strikes are another storm-related hazard expected to become more frequent. Research suggests that every 1°C of global warming could increase lightning strike frequency by ~12%. A typical airliner is already struck by lightning about once or twice a year on average. Aircraft are built to withstand lightning (by safely dissipating the electrical charge), so crashes from lightning are exceedingly rare. However, more lightning means more potential for system damage or at least more frequent inspections and repairs after strikes, which can disrupt operations. More numerous thunderstorms and lightning in some regions could thus indirectly raise incident rates or operational costs.

Finally, microbursts (intense downdrafts associated with thunderstorms) and strong crosswinds from storm fronts remain challenges. These sudden wind events have caused accidents historically (especially before Doppler radar detection was widely installed). While technology has improved safety, pilots must sometimes contend with stronger wind events than in the past. For example, climate data indicates that overall wind shear at aircraft cruising altitudes has increased ~15% since 1979 and will likely increase further by another 10–20% by late century – a statistic that primarily impacts turbulence at altitude, but is emblematic of more volatile wind patterns. Near the surface, trends in extreme wind are more regional, but any uptick in severe storm winds can translate to higher risk during critical flight phases if not adequately anticipated.

In summary, more frequent or intense storms under climate change could elevate certain risks – from turbulence within storms, to lightning strikes, to challenging wind conditions for takeoffs and landings. The industry response includes better weather radar, stricter storm avoidance protocols, and improved forecasting collaboration with meteorological services to ensure flights have the latest information on convective weather along their routes.

Heatwaves and High-Temperature Effects

Another extreme weather aspect is heat. As global temperatures rise, airports around the world are experiencing more frequent heatwaves and record high temperatures. Extreme heat can affect aircraft performance and safety in several ways:

• Reduced Lift in Thin Hot Air: Aircraft generate lift based on air density; hot air is less dense, which means wings and engines produce less lift and thrust at a given speed. On unusually hot days, especially at high-altitude airports or short runways, an aircraft may struggle to take off at its normal weight. This can necessitate weight restrictions (reducing passengers, cargo, or fuel) or require a longer takeoff roll to achieve flight. In rare cases where these mitigations aren't possible, flights might be delayed until cooler periods of the day. There have been instances of flights canceled due to extreme heat – for example, a 2017 heatwave in Phoenix (47°C temperatures) grounded some smaller regional jets whose takeoff performance charts didn't even go that high. While such cancellations or weight offloads are an operational solution, they underscore that heat extremes push aircraft to performance limits, which could become a safety issue if not managed (e.g., risk of runway overruns on takeoff if an airplane is too heavy for the conditions).

• Impact on Engines and Systems: Extremely hot weather can lead to higher engine temperatures and the risk of overheating. It can also affect air density for cooling and aerodynamic systems. While modern airliners can operate in desert conditions, heatwaves in regions not used to such extremes can strain equipment or require adjusted procedures. For instance, airlines may schedule flights for cooler parts of the day in very hot locations to avoid the peak heat. Maintenance practices are also adapting – making sure cooling and hydraulic systems are robust under higher ambient temperatures.

• Heat Fatigue and Turbulence: On a broader scale, atmospheric heating can induce more turbulence (as discussed) and also more thermal lift (vertical air currents) on takeoff/landing, causing bumpier rides near airports on hot afternoons. Pilots and controllers also face greater fatigue and dehydration in hot conditions, which, while managed, is another human factor to consider during heatwaves.

It's important to note that heat-related factors have not (to date) caused a spike in accidents, but they present new operational challenges that could indirectly impact safety margins. Aviation regulators and airports are studying climate models to plan infrastructure changes like longer runways or strengthened pavements for hotter futures. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and others have identified extreme heat as an emerging risk, noting that airport altitude/temperature restrictions may need revisiting as climate norms shift.

Other Climate-Related Impacts

Beyond turbulence, storms, and heat, climate change poses some additional, less direct risks to aviation safety and reliability:

• Rising Sea Levels and Coastal Flooding: Many major airports are built in coastal areas (often on reclaimed land) and are low-lying. Sea level rise and more extreme storm surges threaten to flood runways and facilities. For example, runways in cities like New York, San Francisco, Amsterdam, Bangkok and others are only a few meters above current sea level and have already seen occasional flooding. Flooded runways obviously cause operational shutdowns, and any unexpected flood could damage equipment or trap aircraft. While this is more a resilience issue than an immediate crash risk, climate-driven flooding could indirectly create safety issues (e.g. if an airport is knocked offline by a flood, flights in the air must divert elsewhere, etc.). Some airports (e.g. San Francisco SFO) have launched major shoreline protection projects to guard against this risk.

• Wildfires and Smoke: Hotter, drier conditions have led to more severe wildfires in many regions. Wildfire smoke can reduce visibility over large areas, causing diversions and instrument approaches, and in extreme cases, the particulate matter could affect engine performance (though commercial jet engines are robust, the abrasive particles are not ideal). In recent years, flights in parts of North America, Australia, and Europe have been disrupted due to widespread smoke haze. Again, primarily an operational challenge, but it requires good contingency planning to maintain safety under poor visibility and air quality conditions.

• Changing Jet Streams and Flight Times: A subtle effect of climate change is the shifting jet stream patterns. Studies suggest that climate change could alter high-altitude wind flows, potentially making westbound flights (which usually head into the jet stream) a bit longer and eastbound flights faster. While this might seem merely a scheduling/fuel concern, it also means historical expectations of wind en route may need updating. Pilots and dispatchers might have to account for new wind extremes to ensure they have sufficient fuel reserves. It's a planning issue that ties into safety if not properly managed.

In essence, climate change is introducing new variables that aviation must adapt to. From a safety perspective, it means anticipating and mitigating these emerging risks through better technology, procedures, and infrastructure.

Climate Change and Aviation Safety: A Synthesis

Bringing the above together: Has climate change led to more accidents? Not in a clearly measurable way yet. The global accident data does not show a notable increase in crashes attributable to weather over 2015–2025 – overall, accidents have continued to decrease in frequency. However, extreme weather incidents affecting aviation are on the rise, and industry experts are concerned that without action this could erode safety margins.

Aviation safety analysts often highlight that accidents are usually multi-causal – weather might be the trigger in an incident, but human decisions, aircraft performance, and other factors determine the outcome. For example, if a storm is brewing, a well-trained crew and robust aircraft can avoid an accident by delaying or diverting; but if procedures aren't followed or the storm is underestimated, weather can become a key causal factor. Thus, the focus is on making the aviation system more resilient to weather extremes. Key strategies include:

• Improved Weather Forecasting & Data Sharing: Airlines and meteorological agencies are investing in better real-time weather monitoring (e.g. satellite and radar upgrades) and data networks to give pilots earlier warning of turbulence or storms. Advanced warning systems for clear-air turbulence are a priority, as traditional radar cannot detect it. Global initiatives are underway to enhance weather modeling specifically for aviation needs.

• Enhanced Pilot Training for Extreme Weather: Training programs now put more emphasis on handling unexpected severe turbulence, storm evasion, wind shear recovery, and operating in marginal conditions. Scenarios that might have been rare in the past (like navigating around more intense thunderstorms clusters or dealing with sudden microburst alerts) are becoming standard in simulators, acknowledging the new normal of weather volatility.

• Operational Adjustments: Airlines are adjusting schedules and routes in small ways to cope with climate extremes – e.g., scheduling departures for cooler times on very hot days, or rerouting flights to avoid traditionally turbulent corridors when the jet stream is particularly agitated (the North Atlantic, for instance, is closely watched for winter turbulence). They are also carrying extra fuel at times in case detours around weather are needed, though this has a cost and environmental trade-off.

• Infrastructure and Technology: Airports are reinforcing infrastructure (installing better drainage for extreme rain, longer runways for heat, seawalls for coastal airports, etc.). Aircraft manufacturers are researching technologies like LIDAR-based turbulence sensors (to detect clear-air turbulence ahead) and more robust materials to handle increased stresses. There's also a push for Sustainable Aviation Fuels and emissions reduction, which, while aimed at reducing aviation's contribution to climate change, will hopefully also help mitigate the extent of future warming and its associated weather impacts.

Expert Insights and Statements

To gauge professional perspectives, this section highlights a few expert opinions on aviation safety trends and weather impacts:

• Willie Walsh – IATA Director General: Walsh underscores that despite recent incidents, flying remains exceedingly safe. He noted that the year 2023 was the safest year on record, with only one fatal accident worldwide, and he lauded the improvement from a decade ago when accidents were more frequent. Walsh stated: "A decade ago, the five-year average was one accident for every 456,000 flights. Today it is one accident for every 810,000 flights", attributing this to the industry's dedication to safety and learning from each incident. However, he also stressed that "every fatality is one too many", and that the industry must continue using data and reports (like IATA's safety report) to drive further risk reduction. His stance reinforces that continuous improvement is the mantra – even as extreme weather poses new challenges, the goal is zero fatalities.

• Mark Searle – IATA Safety Director: In the foreword of IATA's safety report, Searle highlighted "increasing environmental challenges" as one of the dynamic factors the aviation industry must adapt to. This reflects a growing awareness at high levels that climate and weather risks need to be managed alongside technological and political changes. He emphasized maintaining a strong safety culture and risk management in the face of a rapidly changing operating environment.

• Andreas Poehlitz – Chair of IATA's Accident Classification Task Force: Poehlitz remarked on the 2024 uptick in accidents, saying "after a slightly lower number of accidents in 2023, unfortunately, in 2024 we saw an increase.". He noted that 244 lives were lost in 2024 (compared to 72 in 2023). Importantly, he reassured that even with this "uptick in accidents…flying has never been safer over the long term", urging the industry to maintain focus and not become complacent. His comments imply that year-to-year fluctuations (which could be due in part to random clustering of events or emerging issues like extreme weather) must be studied, but the overarching trend remains positive.

• Prof. Paul D. Williams – Atmospheric Scientist: Williams is a leading researcher on climate change's impact on aviation. He has bluntly stated that climate change is "making flights bumpier" due to increased clear-air turbulence. He frequently explains to the public that this doesn't mean flying will become dangerous to the point of crashes, but it does mean we can expect more uncomfortable and potentially injurious turbulence encounters if nothing is done. His advice is often that both airlines and passengers should take turbulence more seriously: for instance, passengers should keep seatbelts fastened when seated, and airlines should invest in better forecasting and routing to avoid turbulence pockets. Williams' research provides a scientific basis for industry actions to adapt to a **"more turbulent" atmosphere.

• Sara Nelson – President of Association of Flight Attendants (AFA): Representing flight attendants, Nelson has called turbulence a "serious workplace safety issue." Flight attendants are often the ones hurt in turbulence (as they might be standing or moving about), and an increase in severe turbulence directly affects their safety. Her viewpoint adds that climate change's effects are already being felt on the front lines in the cabin. The union has advocated for policies like having passengers buckle up and for airlines to schedule service routines strategically to avoid having crew in the aisle during known turbulence risk periods. It's an example of how those in the aviation industry workforce are pushing for recognition of changing weather patterns in day-to-day operations.

• Peter Neenan – Aviation Safety Lawyer (Stewarts Law): In a 2024 commentary, Neenan suggested that climate change "likely played a role" in the Singapore Airlines SQ321 turbulence incident, and that with severe turbulence becoming more common, the industry including insurers must take notice. He emphasized the need for better detection systems and noted that while turbulence is usually not catastrophic to the plane, it can cause life-changing injuries to people on board. His perspective is that of risk management: airlines might face more liability and costs from turbulence injuries, so there is both a safety and financial incentive to adapt to more extreme weather patterns.

• Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) and Other Analysts: The FSF has identified climate-related weather risks as an emerging issue in recent forums. Safety analysts at such organizations point out that extreme weather is just one of several emerging threats (alongside things like new airspace complexities, drone interference, etc.), but it's significant because it affects the entire globe and every flight phase. They advocate for incorporating climate risk scenarios into Safety Management Systems (SMS) at airlines – for example, evaluating how a trend of increasing storms might impact a particular route's risk profile, or how repeated heat stress could affect airport operations reliability. Essentially, the expert consensus is that climate change is injecting additional risk into the aviation system, but proactive measures can mitigate these risks.

Conclusion

Have commercial airplane accidents increased globally in the past decade? The data shows no overall increase – in fact, a decline – in accidents from 2015 to 2025, with 2023 being the safest year on record by several measures. The trend reflects relentless improvements in aviation safety technology, training, and international standards. However, the slight rise in accidents in 2024 serves as a reminder that new challenges are constantly emerging.

A major emerging challenge explored in this report is the role of extreme weather and climate change. While traditional causes like human error remain the primary factors in crashes, extreme weather contributes to a significant minority (~10%) of accidents and is a factor that may grow in importance. The past decade saw numerous incidents where weather was pivotal – from airplanes encountering unprecedented turbulence, to storms causing diversions and harrowing landings, to heatwaves testing the limits of aircraft performance.

Climate change is amplifying weather risks in multiple ways: increasing turbulence at cruise altitudes, intensifying storms and lightning, and bringing more frequent heat extremes. These changes have not caused a spike in crashes, but they have led to more in-flight injuries, more aborted takeoffs/landings, and higher stresses on the aviation system. The industry, guided by meteorologists and safety experts, is actively responding – implementing new technologies (like better turbulence detection and weather forecasting tools) and updating procedures to keep flight operations safe in a warmer, more turbulent atmosphere.

In the words of IATA's safety report: "Despite annual fluctuations in safety performance, overall, aviation gets safer every year." The coming years will test that trend as climate extremes become more common. Through global cooperation – among airlines, regulators (ICAO, FAA, EASA, etc.), meteorological institutions, and researchers – the goal is to ensure that even as the skies get "rougher," flying remains fundamentally safe. Continuous improvement, data-driven risk management, and adaptation to environmental changes will be key. As one airline executive quipped, "We cannot control the weather, but we can control how we prepare for and navigate through it." The aviation industry is doing just that: studying the skies anew in an era of climate change, to uphold the remarkable safety record that flying has achieved.